AAA Forecasts Record 82 Million Thanksgiving Travelers
New report warns of heavy road congestion, steady gas prices, and potential shifts from air to car travel after recent flight cancellations
Nearly 82 million Americans are expected to travel for Thanksgiving this year, marking the busiest holiday travel period on record, according to new projections released by AAA. The agency estimates that 81.8 million people will travel at least 50 miles from home between Tuesday, November 25 and Monday, December 1.
This year’s forecast includes 1.6 million more travelers than last Thanksgiving, underscoring the holiday’s reputation as the nation’s biggest travel event.
“Thanksgiving travel numbers are always impressive because this holiday has become synonymous with heading out of town to spend time with loved ones,” said Stacey Barber, Vice President of AAA Travel. “People are willing to brave the crowds and make last-minute adjustments to their plans to make lifelong memories, whether it’s visiting extended family or meeting up with friends.”
Most Travelers Are Driving — and That Number Could Grow
AAA expects 73 million people to travel by car, making up nearly 90% of all Thanksgiving travelers. With recent flight cancellations affecting multiple airlines, AAA notes that the number of drivers could increase if passengers decide to switch from air to road.
Car rentals are also trending upward. Hertz, AAA’s rental partner, expects Wednesday to be the busiest day for pickups, with the highest demand in Orlando, Atlanta, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, and Newark. On average, domestic car rentals are 15% cheaper than last year.
Drivers can also expect similar fuel costs compared to 2024. Last Thanksgiving, the national average for regular gas was $3.06 per gallon.
AAA is urging travelers to check batteries, tire pressure, and fuel levels before hitting the road. The organization responded to nearly 600,000 roadside assistance calls over last year’s holiday period, including dead batteries, flat tires, and empty tanks.
Safety agencies are also renewing warnings about impaired driving. According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, between 2019 and 2023, 868 people died in drunk-driving crashes during Thanksgiving festivities — representing 35% of all traffic fatalities during that period.
Air Travel Up Slightly — But Could Shift
About 6 million U.S. travelers are expected to fly domestically, up 2% from 2024. AAA notes this figure may fall slightly if concerns over recent flight disruptions push passengers toward alternate options.
Roundtrip domestic flights are averaging $700, similar to last year. Travelers flying on Thanksgiving Day can often find cheaper fares, but the return trip remains costly, with Sunday and Monday among the busiest travel days of the year.
Bus, Train, and Cruise Travel Rises
Travel by bus, train, and cruise is projected to rise 8.5% to nearly 2.5 million travelers.
Cruising continues to set post-pandemic records, with 20.7 million American passengers expected this year. AAA projects that number will reach 21.7 million in 2026. Caribbean cruises remain a popular Thanksgiving option thanks to warm weather and all-inclusive pricing.
Top Thanksgiving Destinations
Based on AAA booking data, Florida dominates domestic travel demand — particularly Orlando, Fort Lauderdale, Miami, and Tampa. Internationally, travelers are favoring Europe, the Caribbean, and Australia.
Top Domestic Destinations: Orlando (FL), Fort Lauderdale (FL), Miami (FL), Anaheim/Los Angeles (CA), Tampa (FL), New York (NY), San Francisco (CA), Honolulu (HI), Las Vegas (NV), Atlanta (GA)
Top International Destinations: Paris (France), Amsterdam (Netherlands), Vienna (Austria), Cancun (Mexico), Punta Cana (Dominican Republic), Basel (Switzerland), Sydney (Australia), Barcelona (Spain), Budapest (Hungary), Oranjestad (Aruba)
Worst Times to Travel
Transportation analytics company INRIX expects Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons to be the most congested before Thanksgiving. For return trips, Sunday is projected to see heavy traffic throughout the day.
Travelers should plan for morning departures when possible and anticipate delays from construction, crashes, or winter weather. INRIX also reminds drivers to Slow Down and Move Over for emergency responders and stranded motorists.
Read the full report by AAA. | Cover image: Brian Gailey